Winter Weather.

Yeah. It was definitely sixty degrees on Friday -- read on the front porch all afternoon with the dog. And it was surely better than fifty degrees yesterday: even the normally January-reticent AMR thought it'd be nice to have breakfast out back, facing into the sun. But last night we picked up what I'd have to report would be a chill in the air, and then later last night I'd have to report that we picked up quite the wind, and then now I'd have to report that it's gray again, cold again, winter blown back in just in time for this last week of the month.

I've been much enjoying the NOAA Forecast Discussion of late, and thought, friends and fans of weather, that you might just, too, so here's some Sunday reading for your grayed-over pleasure (and, perhaps, for your midweek use):

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STILL OFFERS A FAIRLY INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AS A S/W IN FAST ZONAL FLOW MOVES TOWARD/JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS S/W WILL BACK 850MB FLOW TO THE SW...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WEST AND NORTH. MEANWHILE PARENT HIGH (1035MB) ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL MAINTAIN A COOL DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AT THE INITIAL PRECIP ONSET. THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING WITH THE RAIN THROUGH THE SUBCLOUD LAYER MAY LEAD TO A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NW AND FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ICING OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO RECEIVE A REPORT OR TWO OF SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES OR A SLIGHT GLAZE IN THE TREE TOPS. MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING. PLAN TO END FREEZING RAIN THREAT BY MID DAY...BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THICKNESSES TREND IN LATER MODEL RUNS AS COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS WILL LIE JUST TO OUR NORTH.